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Grani.Ru: Button of no return

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from Грани.Ру // Статьи.


In a few days, the dictator of Nazi Russia will announce the annexation of four regions of Ukraine.
He cannot cancel the decision he has already publicly announced. And the point is not that such a retreat from the declared positions can bring down the political structure of Putin’s dictatorship. It seems very likely that Russian society is ready to dutifully put up with any zigzags of power. But much more than “internal threats”, the Kremlin rat is afraid to show weakness in front of external opponents.

The minimum immediate goal of Putin’s Nazi regime is the entry of Russian-fascist invaders to the administrative borders of the annexed regions and forcing Ukraine to publicly renounce the armed struggle for these territories.
This means a temporary “freezing of the conflict” acceptable to the Kremlin. Failure to achieve this goal will be unequivocally perceived both inside and outside Russia as a demonstration of the same weakness.

The Kremlin has no conventional military forces to achieve this goal.
Even in order to stop, although slowed down, but still the ongoing counter-offensive of Ukraine. Everything prepared and combat-ready that could be scraped out of Russia without completely exposing the critically important military infrastructure has already been thrown to the Ukrainian front and a significant part of it has been knocked out. A quick transfer to the front of large masses of mobilized cannon fodder is also impossible. It will be gradual.However, the build-up of Russian military resources at the front will cause a proportional build-up of Western military assistance to Ukraine.

By embarking on yet another round of escalation, Putin has inflated the price of concessions rather than resistance for his opponents.
Freezing the actual front line, followed by endless negotiations over “disputed territories” would suit many in the West. But Putin himself cuts off the path to this, announcing the official and final annexation. Negotiations on “disputed territories” are becoming impossible for the Kremlin in the first place.

On the other hand, the leaders of the West, too, simply cannot afford to confine themselves to verbal non-recognition of the annexation.
Any acquisition holding by the Kremlin of control even over a part of the territory, the annexation of which it will announce, turns the annexation from a single precedent into a daily norm of modern international reality. And this, in turn, turns the entire system of international institutions, alliances and agreements into a bank that has lost credit credibility and has burst.

No one after that will be able to contain the rising tide of international violence in various parts of the planet. Putin simply left Western leaders no choice but to defend themselves in an attempt to prevent this from happening. And the only means by which he can somehow hope to force them to capitulate (in particular, to refuse military assistance to Ukraine) is nuclear blackmail.

In his existential struggle for a new world order based on the arbitrariness of a predator, Putin will sooner or later have to put forward his nuclear ultimatum.
Not so much to Ukraine as to the leaders of the West. And sooner or later he will have to reinforce verbal threats with a demonstration of determination to actually use nuclear weapons. No one knows if the “fool-proof” Russian nuclear arsenal will work. But the danger that it will not work exists and is quite large.

There is an opinion that Putin will not use nuclear weapons before he uses up the cannon fodder he is mobilizing.However, the conservation for any long period of the current situation at the front after the official registration of the annexation is not only unacceptable for the West, but also extremely humiliating for the Kremlin. How is it – we have already declared this territory ours, but nothing changes. One of the important features of the totalitarian, Nazi regime of Putin is the huge role of show-offs in the system of maintaining power.

It is very likely that a nuclear ultimatum will be issued in a few days – right after the puppet Russian “parliament” stamps the annexation. And if Western intelligence gets credible information about the imminence of a Russian nuclear attack in the near future, this may force Western leaders to launch a preemptive disarming strike.