I’m often reminded that I’m known as “the guy who says Trump is going to prison.” This often comes from people who thank me for being willing to speak the truth about it, and it sometimes comes from people who derisively accuse me of pushing false hope or a pipe dream.
But this really isn’t about me. If I’m known as “the guy” who says Trump is going to prison, then by definition it means that no other pundits (on either side of the aisle) are really saying it. That’s sad, because they all know it’s true.
Given the news that keeps coming out of the New York grand jury, it’s easy to draw a straight line from Trump to state prison, and it’s very difficult to come up with any magic wand scenario that somehow keeps Trump out of state prison. Yet even the major news outlets who have been breaking the New York grand jury news, have been unwilling to spell out what it actually means.
I suspect the reason is that it’s a risk to get too far ahead of the narrative, even if you know with 100% certainty that you’ll eventually be proven right. When Trump does land in prison, I’ll be congratulated for having said as much. But because no one knows when the indictment will come down, or how long it’ll take for his trial to be scheduled, or when his sentence will begin after his conviction, it’ll be some time before Trump is actually caged. In the meantime, detractors (on both sides) can take the easiest of cheap shots at me by simply pointing out that Trump isn’t in prison yet.
This is why most pundits don’t want to stick their necks out by predicting something that they know for certain will happen eventually, but won’t happen this week or next. They know that grand juries essentially always return indictments on financial crimes, and that trial juries essentially always convict on financial crimes. They know that the Governor of New York isn’t going to pardon Trump on state crimes. They know that Trump is going to prison. They just don’t want to take crap in the short term for making a prediction that could take awhile to be proven correct.
1. Trump from Michael_Novakhov (197 sites)